As an important raw material closely related to people's daily life, steel market is basically in line with the law of “golden three silver four” and “golden nine silver ten”.

In 2013 and before, the market's overall peak season was still relatively obvious. The operating rate in the peak season increased, driving the market price to actively explore, the market consumption in the off-season fell, the market support weakened, and the market price fell rationally. However, starting from 2014, the peak season is not prosperous, the off-season is weaker, and the market is weak, but it has not bottomed out until 2015, slipping to the bottom of the stage.

However, just like the darkness before dawn, after the days of suffering, the dawn finally appeared. In 2016, structural steel began to turn over as a master, especially in less than a month after the Spring Festival, almost pulled back the decline in the previous half year, although there was a slight correction later, but the market as a whole continued to rise. . As of March 31, the domestic structural steel valuation recorded 2407.32 yuan / ton, up 514.32 yuan / ton from the beginning of the year. In the end, can the market continue to rise, and where will the market turning point appear?

First, inventory. The starting point of the current round of the market is in late December 2015. From the perspective of structural steel, the current policies of major steel mills have stopped falling, and the courage to dare to stop falling is due to the five major steel products in China (cold rolling, hot rolling). The overall inventory of the medium plate, rebar and wire rods is at a low level. Although this cannot be said to be the source of all power, it is also an important driving force for the market to stop falling. In terms of structural steel, the inventory of steel mills continued to decline after the holiday, reaching a low point in the first half of March, which also laid an important foundation for following the storms of steel billets and black five. In recent times, as the market price has been continuously rising, the inventory of steel mills has been rapidly transferred to distributors. At present, the market has formed a lower inventory of steel mills and first- and second-tier agents, and third- and fourth-level agents. And the situation of large inventory of distributors facing the terminal is affected by this situation. Even if the steel mills continue to pull up sharply, the market power and space are insufficient. However, under the tight support of short-term goods, there is no risk of a big drop in the market.

Second, the mentality. After several consecutive years of decline, domestic steel mills have been able to make very little profit, so that in 2015, steel mills went bankrupt, reorganized, and stopped indefinitely. The news was a nightmare for steelmakers. However, to a certain extent, it has accelerated the progress of resolving the overcapacity of domestic steel. And after the holiday, the steel rose so much that the steel mills resumed production, such as Guangfu. This has caused the supply side to recover to a certain extent. Under the premise that the overall start of the terminal demand is not very optimistic, the industry will have a certain skepticism about whether the market may continue to rise. The fear of high psychology causes the market to follow the hype and blindly The chasing height is reduced.

Third, demand. From the current situation of terminal demand, it is still less than the first half of 2005. Especially for structural steel, a distribution agent said that this year's shipments fell by nearly 30% compared with 2005. Although the words of one family cannot represent the whole, But to a certain extent, it reflects that downstream demand has not completely broken away from the bottom. In recent years, the peak season has not reached a consensus, but after April, the traditional off-season will be ushered in. If there is no major boost, the market support will continue to weaken. Judging from the changes in demand in previous years, the demand side in mid-to-late April has often begun to show signs of fatigue.

Based on the above analysis, the overall market support has begun to weaken in the near future. Although some steel mills indicated that the policy at the beginning of the month is still expected to rise, the sustainability of the market has been tested. Starting from the middle and late, this test may have a certain impact on the market.